Jakarta (ANTARA) – Indonesia can keep its budget deficit below the statutory three percent ceiling even if global oil prices spike, Deputy Finance Minister Juda Agung said, underscoring fiscal resilience amid heightened geopolitical risks.“Our calculations show that even under a worst-case scenario, with average crude at about US$100 per barrel this year, the deficit can be contained at around 2.9 percent,” Agung said at the Fitch Ratings Annual Indonesia Conference on Thursday.He noted Indonesia’s crude price (ICP) has averaged roughly US$79 per barrel so far this year, providing a buffer against external shocks.Still, Agung warned that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to pressure the domestic economy through higher energy costs.He stressed that oil price movements have a direct fiscal impact, with every US$1 increase adding about Rp6.8 trillion (US$383 million) to the deficit, based on government estimates.“The conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, lifting oil prices, fueling inflation—especially in food and energy—and shifting investor sentiment,” he said.These developments have also rippled through global financial markets, affecting capital flows and Indonesia’s broader economic outlook.To manage these risks, the government is deploying a set of fiscal strategies aimed at preserving stability.First, it is tightening spending efficiency, particularly in priority programs such as the Red and White Village Cooperatives (KDMP) and the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) initiative.Second, authorities are strengthening innovative financing by optimizing the state’s funding mix and deepening domestic financial markets to reduce reliance on external sources.Third, the government is working to enhance revenue collection, especially from taxation, to support fiscal sustainability.In parallel, Indonesia is expanding the role of its sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, as an alternative financing vehicle outside the state budget.Agung said the combined measures are designed to ensure fiscal discipline while maintaining growth momentum, even as external risks persist and commodity markets remain volatile.