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Kadin sees Indonesia’s economy growing 5.4 percent in 2026

Jakarta (ANTARA) – Indonesia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) projected economic growth of 5.4 percent in 2026, saying stronger domestic consumption, resilient trade performance, and rising investment as key drivers for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.Kadin Chairman Anindya Novyan Bakrie said the target is achievable if government spending becomes more productive and effective in supporting consumption, particularly through social programmes and improved distribution of regional budgets.Domestic consumption remained the main engine of growth in 2025, with household spending contributing more than 53 percent of gross domestic product and household consumption rising about 4.9 percent year-on-year, according to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS).”How can government spending become more productive and effective so it reaches regions that in 2025 may still be feeling the impact of fiscal efficiency,” Anindya said after a Global and Domestic Economic Outlook 2026 event in Jakarta on Thursday.He cited programs such as the free nutritious meals initiative and the Red and White village cooperatives, stressing they must be implemented efficiently and involve businesses from the real sector to maximize their economic impact.Indonesia’s trade performance has remained resilient. BPS data showed the country recorded a trade surplus of about US$23.65 billion during the January-July 2025 period, with exports totalling US$160.16 billion and imports at US$136.51 billion.On a monthly basis, Indonesia booked a trade surplus of US$2.39 billion in October 2025, with exports valued at US$24.24 billion and imports at US$21.84 billion, according to BPS data.Anindya said the improving trade balance provides room for the sector to contribute more strongly to economic growth if fully leveraged.Investment is also expected to strengthen in 2026, supported by Indonesia’s stable macroeconomic conditions and the role of Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, investment management agency BPI Danantara, he added.Separately, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has said Indonesia has sufficient capacity to push economic growth to 6 percent in 2026 by aligning fiscal policy, the financial sector, and investment as three mutually reinforcing engines of sustainable growth.