Jakarta (ANTARA) – Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that global climate patterns could shift toward a weak to moderate El Niño in the second half of 2026, with a 50–80 percent probability, raising the risk of drought and wildfires.BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani said the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but signs of a transition toward El Niño require vigilance as they could intensify the dry season.Based on expert assessments, the agency said the dry season could arrive earlier and last longer, with overall conditions in 2026 expected to be drier than normal.“Drought and El Niño are different phenomena. Drought is part of a climatological cycle, but when it coincides with El Niño, rainfall is significantly reduced and conditions become much drier,” he said in a statement on Thursday.Fathani explained that ENSO is a global climate pattern marked by changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean.It consists of three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions.These shifts influence global weather patterns, including in Indonesia, where El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall and a higher risk of drought and forest fires.In line with these conditions, BMKG reported that the number of hotspots in Indonesia had reached 1,601 as of early April 2026, higher than in the same period in previous years.He said the risk of forest and land fires is expected to rise in Riau in June, before spreading to Jambi and South Sumatra, and later to West and South Kalimantan from July to August.As a mitigation measure, the agency is strengthening preventive efforts through Weather Modification Operations (WMO) using land rewetting methods, particularly in peatland areas.“When groundwater levels in peatlands decline, we carry out weather modification to maintain soil moisture and reduce fire risk,” he said, while stressing the importance of cross-sector preparedness by local governments and communities to anticipate increasing wildfire risks.